Available on https://psyarxiv.com/fs562, this is a Bayesian analysis of the Pfizer Phase 3 clinical trial on a vaccine against COVID-19. Alternative analyses have been presented by Bob Carpenter, Sebastian Kranz, and Chuck Powell. On Monday November 9th 2020, Pfizer and BioNTech issued a press release1 in which Pfizer CEO Dr. Albert Bourla stated: “Today is a great day for science…
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Twitter giveth joy, and Twitter taketh it away. This time, Twitter giveth, and in abundance, as I just learned from a tweet of Katie Corker that all APA core titles will require TOP Level 1 transparency for the sharing of data and materials: The Center for Open Science tweet: From the COS statement: “The APA said it will officially begin implementing…
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About a year ago my former PhD-student Don van Ravenzwaaij challenged me to write a book that explains Bayesian inference to toddlers, using dinosaurs as the main vehicle of exposition. “I don’t think it’s possible”, Don said. In the words of Michael Jordan, “I took that personally”. Over the past year, I have been tweaking the storyline, and Viktor Beekman…
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Summary In the popular indoor mall “Hilvertshof”, in the Dutch town of Hilversum, on Monday October 12th, 2020, at about 3 pm, I counted 175 adults wearing a face mask, and 261 adults not wearing a face mask, for a mask wearing percentage of about 40%. Based on this data collection experience, I also offer four conjectures that future research…
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This post is a teaser for Sarafoglou, A., Haaf, J. M., Ly, A., Gronau, Q. F., Wagenmakers, E.-J., & Marsman, M. (2020). Evaluating multinomial order restrictions with bridge sampling. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv./bux7p/ Summary Hypotheses concerning the distribution of multinomial proportions typically entail exact equality constraints that can be evaluated using standard tests. Whenever researchers formulate inequality constrained hypotheses,…
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The small plastic dome containing a die in the popular game “Mens Erger Je Niet!” (“Don’t Get So Annoyed!”) causes a bias — the die tends to land on the side opposite to how it started. This was not our initial hypothesis, however… The 106-year old game “Mens Erger Je Niet!” (a German invention) involves players tossing a die and…
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To paraphrase Mark Twain: “to someone with a hammer, everything looks like a nail”. And so, having implemented the Bayesian A/B test (Kass & Vaidyanathan, 1992) in R and in JASP (Gronau, Raj, & Wagenmakers, 2019), we have been on a mission to apply the methodology to various clinical trials. In contrast to most psychology experiments, lives are actually on…
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Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1890-1962) was one of the greatest statisticians of all time. However, Fisher was also stubborn, belligerent, and a eugenicist. When it comes to shocking remarks, one does not need to dig deep: In a dissenting opinion on the 1950 UNESCO report “The race question”, Fisher argued that “Available scientific knowledge provides a firm basis for believing…
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