Preprint: Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis: Addressing Publication Bias with Model-Averaging

This post is a teaser for Maier, Bartoš, & Wagenmakers (2020). Robust Bayesian meta-analysis: Addressing publication bias with model-averaging. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/u4cns   Abstract “Meta-analysis is an important quantitative tool for cumulative science, but its application is frustrated by publication bias. In order to test and adjust for publication bias, we extend model-averaged Bayesian meta-analysis with selection models.…

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Struggling with de Finetti’s Representation Theorem

De Finetti’s Representation Theorem is among the most celebrated results in Bayesian statistics. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I have never really understood its significance. A host of excellent writers have all tried to explain why the result is so important [e.g., Lindley (2006, pp. 107-109), Diaconis & Skyrms (2018, pp. 122-125), and the various works by Zabell],…

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PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST (Part III): De Finetti’s 1974 Preface (Part I)

In an earlier blogpost I complained that the reprint of Bruno de Finetti’s masterpiece “Theory of Probability” concerns the 1970 version, and that the famous preface to the 1974 edition is missing. This blogpost provides an annotated version of this preface (de Finetti, 1974, pp. x-xiv). As the preface spans about four pages, it will take several posts to cover…

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Book Review of “Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way”

The subtitle says it all: “Understanding statistics and probability with Star Wars, Lego, and rubber ducks”. And the author, Will Kurt, does not disappoint: the writing is no-nonsense, the content is understandable, the examples are engaging, and the Bayesian concepts are explained clearly. Here are some of the book’s features that I particularly enjoyed:

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A Primer on Bayesian Model-Averaged Meta-Analysis

This post is an extended synopsis of a preprint that is available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/97qup/ Abstract Meta-analysis is the predominant approach for quantitatively synthesizing a set of studies. If the studies themselves are of high quality, meta-analysis can provide valuable insights into the current scientific state of knowledge about a particular phenomenon. In psychological science, the most common approach is…

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Omit Needless Words: An Unapproachable Example of Conciseness Related by the Traveling Chinese Story-teller Kai Lung

As mentioned in an earlier post, the epigraphs in Harold Jeffreys’s 1935 geophysics book “Earthquakes and mountains” prompted me to read “The Wallet of Kai Lung”, a collection of short stories by Ernest Bramah Smith (1868-1942). In one of the stories, “The confession of Kai Lung”, the traveling Chinese story-teller Kai Lung relates the following autobiographical tale, “an unapproachable example…

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