To paraphrase Mark Twain: “to someone with a hammer, everything looks like a nail”. And so, having implemented the Bayesian A/B test (Kass & Vaidyanathan, 1992) in R and in JASP (Gronau, Raj, & Wagenmakers, 2019), we have been on a mission to apply the methodology to various clinical trials. In contrast to most psychology experiments, lives are actually on…

Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1890-1962) was one of the greatest statisticians of all time. However, Fisher was also stubborn, belligerent, and a eugenicist. When it comes to shocking remarks, one does not need to dig deep: In a dissenting opinion on the 1950 UNESCO report “The race question”, Fisher argued that “Available scientific knowledge provides a firm basis for believing…

This post is a teaser for Maier, Bartoš, & Wagenmakers (2020). Robust Bayesian meta-analysis: Addressing publication bias with model-averaging. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/u4cns   Abstract “Meta-analysis is an important quantitative tool for cumulative science, but its application is frustrated by publication bias. In order to test and adjust for publication bias, we extend model-averaged Bayesian meta-analysis with selection models.…

De Finetti’s Representation Theorem is among the most celebrated results in Bayesian statistics. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I have never really understood its significance. A host of excellent writers have all tried to explain why the result is so important [e.g., Lindley (2006, pp. 107-109), Diaconis & Skyrms (2018, pp. 122-125), and the various works by Zabell],…

This is the third and final post on the 1974 preface of Bruno de Finetti’s masterpiece “Theory of Probability”, which is missing from the reprint of the 1970 book. Below, the use of italics is always as in the original text.                         De Finetti’s Preface Continued [Annotated] “It would…

Here we continue our coverage of the 1974 preface of Bruno de Finetti’s masterpiece “Theory of Probability”, which is missing from the reprint of the 1970 book. Multiple posts are required to cover the entire preface. Below, the use of italics is always as in the original text.                       De…

In an earlier blogpost I complained that the reprint of Bruno de Finetti’s masterpiece “Theory of Probability” concerns the 1970 version, and that the famous preface to the 1974 edition is missing. This blogpost provides an annotated version of this preface (de Finetti, 1974, pp. x-xiv). As the preface spans about four pages, it will take several posts to cover…

The subtitle says it all: “Understanding statistics and probability with Star Wars, Lego, and rubber ducks”. And the author, Will Kurt, does not disappoint: the writing is no-nonsense, the content is understandable, the examples are engaging, and the Bayesian concepts are explained clearly. Here are some of the book’s features that I particularly enjoyed: