Contrary to most of the published literature, the impact of the Cauchy prior width on the t-test Bayes factor is seen to be surprisingly modest. Removing the most extreme 50% of the prior mass can at best double the Bayes factor against the null hypothesis, the same impact as conducting a one-sided instead of a two-sided test. We demonstrate this…
read moreThis post is an extended synopsis of a preprint that is available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/97qup/ Abstract Meta-analysis is the predominant approach for quantitatively synthesizing a set of studies. If the studies themselves are of high quality, meta-analysis can provide valuable insights into the current scientific state of knowledge about a particular phenomenon. In psychological science, the most common approach is…
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As mentioned in an earlier post, the epigraphs in Harold Jeffreys’s 1935 geophysics book “Earthquakes and mountains” prompted me to read “The Wallet of Kai Lung”, a collection of short stories by Ernest Bramah Smith (1868-1942). In one of the stories, “The confession of Kai Lung”, the traveling Chinese story-teller Kai Lung relates the following autobiographical tale, “an unapproachable example…
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This post is a teaser for van den Bergh, D., Clyde, M. A., Raj, A., de Jong, T., Gronau, Q. F., Marsman, M., Ly, A., and Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2020). A Tutorial on Bayesian Multi-Model Linear Regression with BAS and JASP. Preprint available on …
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Below is a summary of a preprint featuring an extensive reanalysis of the results Many Labs 4 project (current preprint). ML4 attempted to replicate the mortality salience effect. Following the publication of the preprint a heated debate broke out about data inclusion criteria. In an attempt of conciliation we decided to reanalyze the data using all proposed data inclusion criteria…
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I was exhausted and expecting my newborn to wake up any moment, but I wanted to look at the data. I had stopped data collection a month prior, and wasn’t due back at work for weeks, so it could have waited, but my academic brain was beginning to stir after what seemed like eons of pregnancy leave. Sneaking a peek…
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Below is a summary of a preprint that features a Bayesian reanalysis of the famous/infamous Gautret et al. data. What I like about this preprint is (a) the multiverse analysis; (b) the Bayesian conclusions — they are so easy to obtain with JASP, and provide much more information then just “p<.05” or “p>.05”; but what I like most of all…
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As the corona-crisis engulfs the world, politicians left and right are accused of “politicizing” the pandemic. In order to follow suit I will try to weaponize the pandemic to argue in favor of Bayesian inference over frequentist inference. In recent months it has become clear that the corona pandemic is not just fought by doctors, nurses, and entire populations as…
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