I was exhausted and expecting my newborn to wake up any moment, but I wanted to look at the data. I had stopped data collection a month prior, and wasn’t due back at work for weeks, so it could have waited, but my academic brain was beginning to stir after what seemed like eons of pregnancy leave. Sneaking a peek…

Below is a summary of a preprint that features a Bayesian reanalysis of the famous/infamous Gautret et al. data. What I like about this preprint is (a) the multiverse analysis; (b) the Bayesian conclusions — they are so easy to obtain with JASP, and provide much more information then just “p<.05” or “p>.05”; but what I like most of all…

As the corona-crisis engulfs the world, politicians left and right are accused of “politicizing” the pandemic. In order to follow suit I will try to weaponize the pandemic to argue in favor of Bayesian inference over frequentist inference. In recent months it has become clear that the corona pandemic is not just fought by doctors, nurses, and entire populations as…

This post summarizes Dablander, F.⭑, van den Berg, D.⭑, Ly, A., Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2020). Default Bayes Factors for Testing the (In)equality of Several Population Variances. Preprint available on ArXiv:                                     https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.06278. Abstract “Testing the (in)equality of variances is an important problem in many…

In a recent blog post, Bayesian icon David Spiegelhalter proposes a new analysis of the results from the ANDROMEDA-SHOCK randomized clinical trial. This trial was published in JAMA under the informative title “Effect of a Resuscitation Strategy Targeting Peripheral Perfusion Status vs Serum Lactate Levels on 28-Day Mortality Among Patients With Septic Shock”. In JAMA, the authors summarize their findings…

The Misconception The relative belief ratio (e.g., Evans 2015, Horwich 1982/2016) equals the marginal likelihood. The Correction The relative belief ratio is proportional to the marginal likelihood. Dividing two marginal likelihoods (i.e., computing a Bayes factor) cancels the constant of proportionality, such that the Bayes factor equals the ratio of two complementary relative belief ratios (Evans 2015, p.109, proposition 4.3.1).…

Available on https://psyarxiv.com/4pf9j, this is a comment on a recent article in JAMA (Futier et al., 2020). The multicenter FLASH trial1 concluded that “Among patients at risk of postoperative kidney injury undergoing major abdominal surgery, use of HES [hydroxyethyl starch] for volume replacement therapy compared with 0.9% saline resulted in no significant difference in a composite outcome of death or…

The default Bayes factor hypothesis test compares the predictive performance of two rival models, the point-null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis . In the case of the -test, a popular choice for the prior distribution is a Cauchy centered on zero with scale parameter 0.707 (for informed alternatives see Gronau et al., in press). One of the problems with such…