Together with Frank Ramsey, the Italian “radical probabilist” Bruno de Finetti is widely considered to be the main progenitor and promoter of the idea that probability is inherently subjective. According to this view, all we can do is specify our prior beliefs and then ensure that they remain coherent, that is, free from internal inconsistencies. And the only way to…

The Center of Reproducibility Science (CRS) in Zurich opens the new year by organizing a workshop “Design and Analysis of Replication Studies”. The goal of this workshop is to have “a thorough methodological discussion regarding the design and the analysis of replication studies including specialists from different fields such as clinical research, psychology, economics and others.” I quite look forward…

R code for the reported analyses is available at https://osf.io/sfam7/. My wife Nataschja teaches labor law at Utrecht University. For one of her papers she needed to evaluate the claim that “over the past 35 years, the number of applications processed by the AAC (Advice and Arbitration Committee) has decreased”. After collecting the relevant data Nataschja asked me whether I…

This post is a response to the previous post A Breakdown of “Preregistration is Redundant, at Best”. We were delighted to see how interested people were in the short paper we wrote on preregistration with our co-authors (now published at Trends in Cognitive Science – the revised version of which has been uploaded). First, a note on the original title.…

This post summarizes Wagenmakers, E.-J., Gronau, Q. F., Dablander, F., & Etz, A. (in press). The support interval. Erkenntnis. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/zwnxb/ Abstract A frequentist confidence interval can be constructed by inverting a hypothesis test, such that the interval contains only parameter values that would not have been rejected by the test. We show how a similar definition…

This post is a teaser for van den Bergh, D., Haaf, J. M., Ly, A., Rouder, J. N., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2019). A cautionary note on estimating effect size. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/h6pr8/   Abstract “An increasingly popular approach to statistical inference is to focus on the estimation of effect size while ignoring the null hypothesis that the effect…

This post is an extended synopsis of Hoogeveen, S., Wagenmakers, E.-J., Kay, A. C., & van Elk, M. (in press). Compensatory Control and Religious Beliefs: A Registered Replication Report Across Two Countries. Comprehensive Results in Social Psychology. https://doi.org/10.1080/23743603.2019.1684821   Abstract Compensatory Control Theory (CCT) suggests that religious belief systems provide an external source of control that can substitute a perceived…

This post is a synopsis of Aczel et al. (2019). A consensus-based transparency checklist. Nature Human Behaviour. Open Access: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0772-6. The associated Shiny app is at http://www.shinyapps.org/apps/TransparencyChecklist/.   How can social scientists make their work more transparent? Sixty-three editors and open science advocates reached consensus on this topic and created a checklist to help authors document various transparency-related aspects of…