This post summarizes Wagenmakers, E.-J., Lee, M. D., Rouder, J. N., & Morey, R. D. (2019). The principle of predictive irrelevance, or why intervals should not be used for model comparison featuring a point null hypothesis. Manuscript submitted for publication. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/rqnu5 Abstract The principle of predictive irrelevance states that when two competing models predict a data…

This post is an extended synopsis of Sarafoglou A., Hoogeveen S., Matzke D., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (in press). Teaching Good Research Practices: Protocol of a Research Master Course. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/gvesh/ Summary The current crisis of confidence in psychological science has spurred on field-wide reforms to enhance transparency, reproducibility, and replicability. To solidify these reforms within the scientific…

This post is an extended synopsis of van Doorn, J. B., Matzke D., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (in press). An In-Class Demonstration of Bayesian Inference. Psychology Learning and Teaching (https://doi.org/10.1177/14757 25719848574). Preprint available on PsyArXiv:https://psyarxiv.com/d8bvn/ Abstract Over 80 years ago, Sir Ronald Fisher conducted the famous experiment “The Lady Tasting Tea” in order to test whether his colleague, Dr. Muriel Bristol,…

This post is an extended synopsis of a preprint that is available on arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1905.02068 Abstract Booming in business and a staple analysis in medical trials, the A/B test assesses the effect of an intervention or treatment by comparing its success rate with that of a control condition. Across many practical applications, it is desirable that (1) evidence can be…

WARNING: this post deals exclusively with a chess endgame study. A previous post discussed the Bristol theme from chess endgame study composition. One of the featured studies was created by the great Leonid Kubbel. This is what I wrote: “Since its inception, the Bristol theme has appealed to several composers. One of the most famous, Leonid Kubbel, created the following…

  Most statisticians know Sir Harold Jeffreys as the conceptual father and tireless promotor of the Bayesian hypothesis test. However, Jeffreys was also a prominent geophysicist. For instance, Jeffreys is credited with the discovery that the earth has a liquid core. Recently, I read Jeffreys’s 1929 book “The Future of the Earth”, which is a smaller and more accessible version…

WARNING: This post starts with two chess studies. They are both magnificent, but if you don’t play chess you might want to skip them. I thank Ulrike Fischer for creating the awesome LaTeX package “chessboard”. NB. The idea discussed here also occurs in Haaf et al. (2019), the topic of a previous post. The Bristol Theme The game of chess…

Some time ago I ran a twitter poll to determine what people believe is the best statistics book of all time. This is the result: The first thing to note about this poll is that there are only 26 votes. My disappointment at this low number intensified after I ran a control poll, which received more than double the votes: