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Preprint: Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips

October 13 - 2023

This post is a synopsis of Bartoš et al. (2023). Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips. Preprint available at https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2310.04153. Post-specific images were generated by Bing. Abstract Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. In a preregistered study we…

A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [8.] A Bayesian Reading List

September 28 - 2023

Since 2017, Dora Matzke and I have been teaching the master course “Bayesian Inference for Psychological Science”. Over the years, the syllabus for this course matured into a book (and an accompanying book of answers) titled “Bayesian inference from the ground up: The theory of common sense”. The current plan is to finish the book in the next few months,…

A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [7.] Buffon’s Needle and the Pancake Puzzle

September 22 - 2023

Since 2017, Dora Matzke and I have been teaching the master course “Bayesian Inference for Psychological Science”. Over the years, the syllabus for this course matured into a book (and an accompanying book of answers) titled “Bayesian inference from the ground up: The theory of common sense”. The current plan is to finish the book in the next few months,…

A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [6.] The Rule of Succession and The Problem of Points

September 19 - 2023

Since 2017, Dora Matzke and I have been teaching the master course “Bayesian Inference for Psychological Science”. Over the years, the syllabus for this course matured into a book (and an accompanying book of answers) titled “Bayesian inference from the ground up: The theory of common sense”. The current plan is to finish the book in the next few months,…

A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [5.] Learning from the Likelihood Ratio

September 13 - 2023

Since 2017, Dora Matzke and I have been teaching the master course “Bayesian Inference for Psychological Science”. Over the years, the syllabus for this course matured into a book (and an accompanying book of answers) titled “Bayesian inference from the ground up: The theory of common sense”. The current plan is to finish the book in the next few months,…

A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [4.] Measuring Probability and Coherence

September 11 - 2023

Since 2017, Dora Matzke and I have been teaching the master course “Bayesian Inference for Psychological Science”. Over the years, the syllabus for this course matured into a book (and an accompanying book of answers) titled “Bayesian inference from the ground up: The theory of common sense”. The current plan is to finish the book in the next few months,…

A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [3.] The Rules of Probability

September 08 - 2023

Since 2017, Dora Matzke and I have been teaching the master course “Bayesian Inference for Psychological Science”. Over the years, the syllabus for this course matured into a book (and an accompanying book of answers) titled “Bayesian inference from the ground up: The theory of common sense”. The current plan is to finish the book in the next few months,…

A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [2.] The Nature of Probability

September 06 - 2023

Since 2017, Dora Matzke and I have been teaching the master course “Bayesian Inference for Psychological Science”. Over the years, the syllabus for this course matured into a book (and an accompanying book of answers) titled “Bayesian inference from the ground up: The theory of common sense”. The current plan is to finish the book in the next few months,…