This post is a teaser for Wagenmakers, E.-J., & Ly, A. (2020). History and nature of the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox. Preprint available on ArXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.10191 Abstract “The Jeffreys-Lindley paradox exposes a rift between Bayesian and frequentist hypothesis testing that strikes at the heart of statistical inference. Contrary to what most current literature suggests, the paradox was central to the Bayesian testing…

This post is a synopsis of Bartoš, F., Maier, M., Quintana D. S., & Wagenmakers, E. (2021). Adjusting for Publication Bias in JASP & R — Selection Models, PET-PEESE, and Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis. Preprint available at https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/kvsp7     Abstract Meta-analyses are essential for cumulative science, but their validity can be compromised by publication bias. In order to mitigate the…

This post is a synopsis of Bartoš, F., Gronau, Q. F., Timmers, B., Otte, W. M., Ly, A., & Wagenmakers, E. J. (2021). Bayesian model‐averaged meta‐analysis in medicine. Statistics in Medicine. The article is available at https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.9170  (open-access).   Abstract We outline a Bayesian model-averaged (BMA) meta-analysis for standardized mean differences in order to quantify evidence for both treatment effectiveness…

In his 1889 book “Calcul des Probabilités”, the French mathematician Joseph Bertrand (1822–1900) introduced a probability paradox that anticipates both the Monty Hall problem and the Three Prisoners problem. Below we first present a literal translation of Bertrand’s text, which unfortunately suffers from being somewhat unclear. We therefore follow it up with a more liberal translation, and end with a…

This post is a synopsis of Boehm U, Evans N J, Gronau D., Matzke D, Wagenmakers E.-J., & Heathcote A J. (2021). Computing and using inclusion Bayes factors for mixed fixed and random effect diffusion decision models. Preprint available at https://psyarxiv.com/45t2w Abstract Cognitive models provide a substantively meaningful quantitative description of latent cognitive processes. The quantitative formulation of these models…

This post is a synopsis of Bartoš, F, Maximilian M, Wagenmakers E.-J., Doucouliagos H., & Stanley, T D. (2021). No need to choose: Robust Bayesian meta-analysis with competing publication bias adjustment methods. Preprint available at https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/kvsp7 Abstract “Publication bias is a ubiquitous threat to the validity of meta-analysis and the accumulation of scientific evidence. In order to estimate and counteract…

Can you predict the effect sizes of typical psychology experiments? Take part in our survey and find out! The winner earns €100 or about $120. Participants should have at least a rudimentary understanding of statistics and effect sizes.   The survey takes only 15 minutes and you will receive feedback about your performance; pilot testers reported that it is tons…

NB. This is a revised version of an earlier blog post that contained hyperbole, an unfortunate phrase involving family members, and reference to sensitive political opinions. I am grateful to everyone who suggested improvements, which I have incorporated to the best of my ability. In addition, I have made a series of more substantial changes, because I could see how…