Last week’s post contained hyperbole, an unfortunate phrase involving family members, and reference to sensitive political opinions. I am grateful to everyone who suggested improvements, which I have incorporated to the best of my ability. In addition, I have made a series of more substantial changes to that blog post, because I could see how the overall tone was needlessly…
read moreIn the past months, SpaceX was quickly moving forward with development of their interplanetary rocket – Starship. The last two prototypes even went ahead with a test flight to ~10 km. The test flight was, in both cases, highly successful, apart from ending in an RUD (rapid unscheduled disassembly) during the landing. That was not unexpected since the previous prototypes…
read moreThis post is an extended synopsis of van Doorn, J., van den Bergh, D., Dablander, F., Derks, K., van Dongen, N.N.N., Evans, N. J., Gronau, Q. F., Haaf, J.M., Kunisato, Y., Ly, A., Marsman, M., Sarafoglou, A., Stefan, A., & Wagenmakers, E.‐J. (2021), Strong public claims may not reflect researchers’ private convictions. Significance, 18, 44-45. https://doi.org/10.1111/1740-9713.01493. Preprint available on PsyArXiv:…
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This post is a synopsis of Pfadt, J. M., van den Bergh, D., Sijtsma, K., Moshagen, M., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (in press). Bayesian estimation of single-test reliability coefficients. Multivariate Behavioral Research. Preprint available at https://psyarxiv.com/exg2y Abstract Popular measures of reliability for a single-test administration include coefficient α, coefficient λ2, the greatest lower bound (glb), and coefficient ω. First, we…
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This post is an extended synopsis of Stefan, A. M., Katsimpokis, D., Gronau, Q. F. & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2021). Expert agreement in prior elicitation and its effects on Bayesian inference. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/8xkqd/ Abstract Bayesian inference requires the specification of prior distributions that quantify the pre-data uncertainty about parameter values. One way to specify prior distributions is through…
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“Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers” is a children’s book that attempts to explain the core of Bayesian inference. I believe that core to be twofold. The first key notion is that of probability as a degree of belief, intensity of conviction, quantification of knowledge, assessment of plausibility, however you want to call it — just as long as it is not some…
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This post is an extended synopsis of Linde, M., Tendeiro, J. N., Selker, R., Wagenmakers, E.-J., & van Ravenzwaaij, D. (submitted). Decisions about equivalence: A comparison of TOST, HDI-ROPE, and the Bayes factor. Preprint available on PsyArXiv: https://psyarxiv.com/bh8vu Abstract Some important research questions require the ability to find evidence for two conditions being practically equivalent. This is impossible to…
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Background: the 2018 article “Redefine Statistical Significance” suggested that it is prudent to treat p-values just below .05 with a grain of salt, as such p-values provide only weak evidence against the null. Here we provide another empirical demonstration of this fact. Specifically, we examine the degree to which recently published data provide evidence for the claim that students who…
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